Implied probability
Industry and product terms
Definition
What a betting price says about the chance of an outcome, once converted to a percentage. Implied probabilities across a market always add to more than 100% — the excess is the operator's margin, and seeing it in a number is a useful antidote to the feeling that the odds are neutral.
Source
Additional citation research
The original definition and sourcing warnings are retained. These sources support only the claims identified below, not necessarily the full entry.
- University College Dublin working paper on sports-betting odds
Supports: Supports inverting decimal odds to obtain probabilities represented by prices and explains the bookmaker-margin or overround relationship.
- Academic analysis of sports-betting odds and implied probabilities
Supports: Supports converting decimal odds into raw implied probabilities and summing them to identify overround in conventional bookmaker markets.
Remaining evidence gap: Above-100% totals are typical rather than universal because fair, promotional, exchange, erroneous, or arbitrageable markets can differ. Calling the calculation an antidote is editorial, and overround should not be equated mechanically with realized hold.
Cite this
Betttr. "Implied probability." The Gambling Recovery Glossary. https://betttr.net/glossary/implied-probability/ (accessed 2026-09-20).
Last updated: 2026-09-20.
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